CB Fonder on Börslunch

Today, our portfolio manager, partner, and CEO, Alexander Jansson, joined EFN’s Gabriel Mellqvist and Kelly Connelin on Börslunch (in Swedish), alongside Folksam’s Chief Economist Marcus Svedberg, to discuss trade wars, the U.S. vs. Europe, USD vs. EUR, and whether a potential ceasefire/peace in Ukraine, as well as Germany’s upcoming election, could serve as triggers for the long-awaited turnaround in Europe.

Peace agreement in 2025?

Construction company NCC reported today, and although the stock traded lower, the company—like its competitors that have reported so far—delivered a solid earnings report. During today’s Börslunch, the discussion centered around whether or not to invest in construction companies, particularly given the expected building boom if peace is achieved in Ukraine. The market already seems to be positioning itself for this scenario, which could create an interesting trading opportunity.

Alexander Jansson believes that the conditions for a peace agreement in 2025 are favorable and that European construction companies have already started benefiting from the optimism surrounding potential reconstruction efforts. Marcus Svedberg pointed out that whenever a peace agreement is reached, it will likely be accompanied by a large stimulus package. He also noted that several underlying factors could support the construction sector in the long run.

U.S. vs. Europe – A necessary shift

Europe has underperformed economically since 2007, and there are signs that something is structurally wrong. Mario Draghi’s report from the fall of 2024 highlighted several of these issues, leading to a growing realization that change is inevitable. Both Alexander Jansson and Marcus Svedberg agreed that once Europe is forced to change, something will indeed happen—and it could be positive for the region’s future.

Could Germany’s election be a turning point?

Here, opinions differed. Alexander Jansson argued that Germany’s election is unlikely to be the decisive turning point, based on forecasts of how the balance of power may unfold. Marcus Svedberg, however, saw potential for change.

Watch Börslunch here (in Swedish).

Please note that all investments involve risk. Share prices may rise or fall in value, and investments always carry the risk of loss. Historical returns are never a guarantee of future performance.